Flare Forecasting

Using the daily observation of the photosphere performed by the Equatorial Spar of INAF - Catania Astrophysical Observatory, we provide an indication of the probabilities that each sunspot group visible on the solar disc may host solar flares of C-, M- and X- class.
The probabilities shown below are calculated using the USSPS acquired on 08 August 2025 at 07:00 UT. They are valid for the subsequent 24 hours.
The sunspot groups capability of hosting flares is based on the Poisson statistics of five parameters: number of sunspots and pores, projected area of sunspot group in tens of millionths of the solar hemisphere, group type according to Zurich classification, type of penumbra of the main sunspot, and relative importance between leading sunspot and density of the sunspot population.

Forecasting method description
NOAA AR
Catania Sunspot Group
Flare C-class
Flare M-class
Flare X-class


4161


69
9%
1%
0%


4165


71
16%
2%
0%


4168


75
43%
10%
1%


4169


76
13%
1%
0%


4170


77
15%
2%
0%


4173


78
15%
1%
0%


4172


79
35%
6%
1%


4171


80
12%
1%
0%


4174


81
9%
1%
0%


82
9%
1%
0%


83
9%
1%
0%
Osservatorio Astrofisico di Catania
Via S.Sofia 78, 95123 Catania ITALY
Phone: (+39) 0957332111; FAX: (+39) 095330592
E-Mail (PEC): inafoacatania@pcert.postecert.it